Thought on the economy

by James Shaw 31. March 2009 16:33

Read the following news:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atJq2AOruM1M

 

Couple of thoughts on the article:

 

- Larry Summers said now's NOT the time to have "less demand in America...There’s no place that should be reducing its contribution to global demand right now." I'm no economist but it makes me wonder how you can ever get out of a hole by digging yourself deeper.  It's illogical to me that as indebted as we are, we can just spend more and more and prosperity will come back. Like a family that already has a pile of debt, how can you get out of debt by getting into more debt? To get out of debt you cut costs and save, and the time to do that is immediately.  

 

- Countries like China that have saved are the ones that can afford to spend, not the US. China's being criticized for not spending enough, esp on its social security programs (75% of its stimulus is on infrastructures). To me they're being very careful with their money. Rather than bailing out failing companies they're spending money on stuff that will help them increase their productivity once the world economy gets better and demand is back, which is smart.

 

I'm also a little skeptical of government-implemented social security program; we've got one here in the U.S., but my generation can totally not depend on it. We still have to save for retirement ourselves. Maybe rather than counting on the government for retirement and other entitlements (other than protection again the unforeseen like health-care and unemployment), China's (granted it's a little too light on the entitlements) way is better in that it keeps citizens on their toes to save, and those big savings in the banks in turn generate the credit that fuels the economy. That's a healthy economy, not one based on borrowing and consumption.

 

Obama talks about the need to to get credit flowing again in this country, but true credit comes from savings, not from the central banks' printing money... So rather than spending, instead, as indebted as we are, we should save our way back to a sound economy. The alternative (borrowing more from foreigners and printing money, which is the action taken right now), will just keep us in this phantom economy that'll only last as long as the dollar doesn't collapse..., and there are already signs of it.

   

 

China Trip 2008

by James Shaw 6. December 2008 20:04

I better blog about my trip to China in September before I forget too much Tongue out.

I went to China for 3 weeks with GAP Adventures, a travel company that I highly recommend, esp if you're single Smile.  If you travel alone, they will pair you up with another single traveller to share a room in the hotel, unlike most other travel companies I found that force single travellers to pay more to stay in a single room.  This company's got trips to everywhere, even space!  The particular one I went on is called "China Experience".  Here's the people I travel with:

The places we covered include (in the order visited): Shanghai, Wuzhen, Hangzhou, Yangshou, Kunming, Chengdu, Lhasa, Xian and Beijing.  It was a lot of ground, and we not only experienced China as a tourist, but also as people livingthere, e.g., riding on the train in the same crowded section asordinary Chinese, visiting the country-side as well as the urban areas,etc. It was more physically engaging than just walking around (biked alot).  You can check out my photos with comments on Facebook; my fellow traveller Lars also took some pretty artistic pictures of the trip.

My favorite city out of the whole trip is Kunming in Southwestern China.  It's not a top tier city like Beijing or Shanghai, but the weather is a lot nicer, and it also seems less polluted.  It's in fact much like San Diego: dry and not humid, unlike most other Chinese cities.  Tibet also is also an interesting experience, simply because it's so different from the rest of China.  My overall impression is that some places of China are naturally gorgeous, some monuments are quite grand (see Leshan Buddha and the Great Wall in the pictures), some places are quite modern, but some places are also quite rural.  It's really a place of contrasts.

There are also cultural differences that took some getting used, even for me who came from Taiwan.  People spitting is common.  Everything is negotiable like the price of the stuff that stores/vendors sell.  At first I was quite embarassed to bargain when I buy stuff, but later I was told by a local that I should start bargaining at 30% of the initial price, and pay no more than 50%, otherwise I overpay.  It's really a good experience to bargain, since you'll need to learn to negotiate with people in life sooner or later, might as well start with the small stuff. 

It was funny that in Tiananmen Square I was approached by a lady that tried to sell me a hat for 15 yuan.  I said I'd only pay 5 yuan for it.  She said it cost her 8 yuan, and walked away pretty offended.  A while later I was about to leave, she came back herself, and sold it to me for 5 yuan, but still seemed pretty offended and kept saying I got a steal. 

Also people there can be quite pushy sometimes.  I was annoyed by a masseuse that kept trying to upsell me services, and a KTV bar that was pretty unscrupulous on their billing.   You just have to be very careful.

One thing I can get used to is that tipping is not customary at most places Tongue out.  I like the idea that good customer service is just a natural expectation of a business, rather than something you pay for; in most countries in Asia tipping is not customary.  I was also impressed by how they in general really work it to earn their money, e.g., store clerks doing their best to sell you stuff vs in the US those clerks just stand there.

China seems very dynamic with people hustling and bustling all the time to better their lives.  I think Jim Rogers is right when he said that "If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, if you were smart in1907 you moved to New York City, and if you are smart in 2007 you moveto Asia."

 

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